Contents
- Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: Global commissioned PV manufacturing capacity by stage
- Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: China and EU shares of cell and module capacity
- Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: EU PV manufacturing capacity and output
- Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: Announced solar manufacturing projects and capacity
- Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: Global PV manufacturing growth and forecasts
- Sources
Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: Global commissioned PV manufacturing capacity by stage
Manufacturing capacity describes the production potential of factories; it is distinct from the volume of products those factories actually make. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) reported global commissioned photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing facilities by supply-chain stage for 2023. Its figures were 963 GWp for polysilicon, 1 871 GWp for ingots and wafers combined, 994 GWp for cells, and 1 154 GWp for modules. The ingot and wafer figure is combined, so it does not provide separate global totals for those two stages. GWp is the unit used in the JRC capacity series. JRC, section 4.1
| PV manufacturing stage | Global commissioned capacity, 2023 |
|---|---|
| Polysilicon | 963 GWp |
| Ingots and wafers combined | 1 871 GWp |
| Cells | 994 GWp |
| Modules | 1 154 GWp |
These are stage-specific capacity observations, not a count of finished panels or a measure of output. A solar module passes through upstream processing stages, so the numbers should be read as separate manufacturing capacities along a supply chain. The JRC passage reports ingots and wafers together; the combined value cannot establish how much capacity belonged to ingots alone or wafers alone. JRC, section 4.1
Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: China and EU shares of cell and module capacity
The JRC’s comparison of production capacity shares shows a marked change between 2015 and 2023. In 2015, China represented 65% of global PV cell production capacity and 69% of global PV module production capacity; the definitions include crystalline and thin-film production. By 2023, China’s share was 87% for cells and 82% for modules. The cell share was higher than the module share in 2023, while the reverse ordering appears in the 2015 figures. JRC, section 4.1
| Year | China: cell capacity share | China: module capacity share |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 65% | 69% |
| 2023 | 87% | 82% |
The corresponding EU shares in 2023 were 0.3% of global cell production capacity and 0.9% of global module production capacity. These are shares of global production capacity, not shares of actual production, investment or announced projects. The JRC comparison covers the specified cell and module measures; it should not be extended to every stage of the PV supply chain. JRC, section 4.1
Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: EU PV manufacturing capacity and output
For the end of 2023, the JRC gives EU capacity estimates as ranges that vary by source. Polysilicon capacity was estimated at 28–29 GWp; combined ingot and wafer capacity at 0–0.25 GWp; cell capacity at 1–1.5 GWp; and module production capacity at 8.5–11 GWp. The ranges reflect differences among cited information sources rather than a single exact point estimate. JRC, section 4.1
| EU PV manufacturing stage | Capacity estimate at end of 2023 |
|---|---|
| Polysilicon | 28–29 GWp |
| Ingots and wafers combined | 0–0.25 GWp |
| Cells | 1–1.5 GWp |
| Modules | 8.5–11 GWp |
The report also adjusts its assessment of EU module production capacity in light of announced closures and reorganizations, putting it at approximately 6 GWp. It describes the remaining capacity as unmodernized, sleeping module lines that were not operational in 2023. This adjusted assessment is different in basis from the 8.5–11 GWp end-of-2023 estimate, so the two figures should not be treated as competing measurements made on identical terms. JRC, section 4.1
Capacity also differs from output and inventory. Citing an estimate from the European Solar Manufacturing Council (ESMC), the report says EU manufacturers actually produced around 2 GWp of PV modules in 2023. It further reports that 0.8–1 GWp of EU-manufactured modules remained unsold in manufacturers’ inventories in 2023. These figures describe production and unsold stock, respectively; neither should be substituted for manufacturing capacity. JRC, section 4.1
Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: Announced solar manufacturing projects and capacity
The US Department of Energy’s June 2023 market update, citing IEA tracking, described a rise in announced activity: more than 120% more new solar PV manufacturing projects were announced from November 2022 to May 2023. That percentage refers to the number of announced projects over the stated interval, not to a 120% increase in installed capacity. The update said these projects could potentially create national PV supply chains with over 20 GW of capacity in each region. This was a statement about potential from announcements, not confirmation that the factories had been built or were operating. US Department of Energy, pp. 67–68
For announcements tracked by the IEA since August 2022, new EU solar PV manufacturing capacity represented 14% of the total. In the 2022–2023 announcement dataset, integrated, module and thin-film manufacturing plants together made up nearly 85% of new facilities. That figure counts facilities, not their share of announced capacity. Dedicated new-cell manufacturing represented less than 1% of announced capacity, while dedicated ingot and wafer manufacturing represented 9%, and dedicated polysilicon production represented 6%. US Department of Energy, pp. 67–68
The same report defines integrated plants as producing three or more components. Nearly 80% of announced integrated-plant capacity did not include dedicated polysilicon production. Separately, new module assembly plants in the announcement dataset were described as having nearly 30 GW of capacity. These measures distinguish the type and scope of proposed plants; an integrated label alone does not mean that a project covers every upstream material stage. US Department of Energy, p. 68
Solar manufacturing capacity statistics: Global PV manufacturing growth and forecasts
Two IEA publications report different estimates for global PV manufacturing capacity in 2022. The June 2023 market update says capacity increased by over 70% to almost 450 GW. A separate IEA analysis reports that it rose by nearly 40% to about 640 GW. The supplied source passages do not reconcile the difference in these estimates, so they are best presented with their publication context intact rather than combined into one number. Both reports identify China as central to the expansion: the June 2023 update says China accounted for over 95% of new facilities throughout the supply chain in 2022, while the separate analysis attributes 90% of capacity growth relative to 2021 to China. US Department of Energy, p. 66; IEA, “Solar PV manufacturing continues to expand dramatically”
The June 2023 update also reported that China’s annual manufacturing capacity for wafers, cells and modules increased 40–50% in 2022. In its June 2023 assessment, it described utilization rates at Chinese solar PV manufacturing facilities as ranging from 20% to 40%. Utilization is a measure of how intensively facilities operate relative to their capacity; it is not another capacity total. US Department of Energy, pp. 38, 66
The other IEA analysis gives a paired view of capacity and throughput. Global PV manufacturing throughput was just over 190 GW in 2021, compared with around 160 GW of PV deployed that year. For 2022, it reports about 640 GW of installed manufacturing capacity and around 260 GW of throughput, and estimates global average utilization at around 40%. These figures cover different concepts: capacity is production potential, throughput is production volume, and deployment is the amount installed. IEA, “Solar PV manufacturing continues to expand dramatically”
Forecasts in the June 2023 update expected global PV manufacturing capacity to reach almost 1 000 GW in 2024. The report compared that forecast with annual IEA Net Zero by 2050 (NZE) demand of almost 650 GW in 2030. It also forecast that global PV manufacturing capacity would double in 2023 and 2024, with China claiming over 90% of the increase. These are expectations stated in a 2023 report, not verified outcomes for 2024 or statements about present-day capacity. US Department of Energy, p. 66
The separate IEA analysis assessed announced projects at different cut-off dates and against different outcomes. Announcements through late 2022 suggested about 670 GW of PV manufacturing throughput by 2030 in the NZE context. By the end of the first quarter of 2023, the IEA counted about 480 GW of additional announced module capacity, 570 GW of cell capacity, 250 GW of wafer capacity and 570 GW of polysilicon capacity. From the announced module capacity, it projected nearly 1.1 TW of throughput. Announced capacity and projected throughput are not interchangeable measures. IEA, “Solar PV manufacturing continues to expand dramatically”
For announced projects expected to be completed through 2027, the IEA compared projected output with 2030 NZE deployment needs. The projected output corresponded to 80% of those needs for cells, 37% for wafers and 96% for polysilicon. These percentages are stage-specific comparisons against a 2030 demand benchmark, not forecasts that those shares of demand had already been met. Together with the earlier project-pipeline estimates, they show why dates, supply-chain stages and metric definitions matter when interpreting solar manufacturing capacity statistics. IEA, “Solar PV manufacturing continues to expand dramatically”